A desperate Putin might attack Europe–And it would cost him dearly | Hanna Notte

EU and Ukraine concluded a major defense deal on Wednesday, which will include joint production of Ukrainian drones, including their manufacture and storage on EU soil. Does this put Ukrainian drone production out of Vladimir Putin’s reach? Or does it put the EU in his crosshairs?

“Yes, I think it is conceivable because the war in Ukraine is not going well for Russia,” Hanna Notte, Eurasia Program Director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told TVP World, saying that Russia sees and accuses Europe of being increasingly involved in the war.

“If Russia wanted to attempt to do something, to try something against a European NATO country, it might also calculate that now is an opportune moment to do so, because the United States remains distracted to some extent by the war with Iran,” Notte said, but also added that the strategy carries risk for the Kremlin, “So it would need to calibrate any action in such a way that it would not elicit a strong response. We know that Russia today has been quite risk averse vis-à-vis NATO in this war,” and that “Russia could achieve the opposite with any kind of escalation and only cause Europe to go even further in supporting Ukraine.”

“If we look at the toolbox of options that Russia has right now in this war, there are really no good options,” she concluded.

Join TVP World’s Aaron Dahmen and his guest, as they explore the impact and importance of the EU-Ukraine defense deal, the threat of Russian hybrid operations targeting Europe, and why Putin has reasons to be disappointed in U.S. President Donald Trump.

Chapters:
00:00 EU–Ukraine drone deal and strategic implications
01:56 Russia’s reaction to institutionalized EU–Ukraine defense cooperation
03:23 Risks of Russian provocations against Europe
06:55 Putin’s disappointment in Trump’s policy toward Ukraine

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