“Russia is beholden to China”: Michael Carpenter on a shifting global balance

Michael Carpenter, a Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, argues that China has been quietly helping fuel Russia’s war for years by supplying critical materials, technology, and economic support, making their deepening military cooperation anything but surprising. He says Beijing has enough leverage to push Moscow toward a ceasefire but chooses not to because a long war weakens Russia, distracts the West, and ultimately serves China’s strategic interests. Carpenter also believes the China–Russia partnership is strong despite underlying tensions, with both governments united by their opposition to the United States and democratic values.

On the U.S. side, he says Donald Trump’s recent rhetoric has become more favorable toward Ukraine, partly because Kyiv has gained momentum on the battlefield, but warns that Trump could easily shift course again. In Carpenter’s view, Trump’s biggest goal is restoring business ties with Russia, and that makes him unlikely to put the kind of economic pressure on Vladimir Putin that would be needed to end the war quickly.

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