Tusk will use the very real threat of Russia to mobilize voters | News In Depth

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Karol Nawrocki, despite being bitter political rivals, both used World War II commemorations marking Nazi Germany’s September 1, 1939 invasion of Poland to draw parallels between the totalitarianisms that led to the conflict and Russia’s war against Ukraine. But how much of their messaging was about history and security, and how much was aimed at next year’s elections?’

“Donald Tusk (...) is probably going to go for a strategy of fear of Russia and protection against Russia, a security campaign. And there is obviously a basis for that,” said Stuart Dowell, TVP World’s Political Editor, citing the war in Ukraine and an increasingly aggressive Russian rhetoric toward NATO countries bordering Russia.

Tusk’s greatest challenge remains weak support for his coalition partners and voters’ disappointment over stalled reforms, making turnout mobilization critical.

“He’s likely going to use the threat of Russia to mobilize his voters. And it could be an effective strategy because these threats are genuine and real,” Dowell said.

On the other side, Poland’s right commands broader overall support but remains fragmented, prompting calls for Nawrocki to help unite it.

“But it's a huge, a very, very difficult proposition, a difficult thing to do,” Dowell said, pointing to the president’s limited political experience. “But he's enjoying huge popularity.”

“He’s the only Polish politician whose positive trust rating is actually larger than negative,” he explained. “The negative side: if he were to get involved in party politics, he would be getting his hands dirty,” and that Nawrocki would probably like to avoid involvement in party politics until he secures a second term.

Join News in Depth host Benjamin Lee and his guest as they explore how security concerns may shape next year’s campaign, whether attitudes toward Ukraine could influence the vote, and what role Nawrocki may play on Poland’s divided right.

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