Putin may attack Baltic states just because it’s his last chance to do so | News In Depth

CIA Director John Radcliffe’s visit to Moscow sparked speculation regarding what his mission was. One of the possible scenarios under discussion is that the U.S. fears Russia will try to escalate the war in Ukraine and attack NATO territory, perhaps the Baltic States. Does Vladimir Putin see a window of narrowing opportunities that could push him toward riskier actions?

“There’s a closing window for Russia. Europe is obviously investing a huge amount in its defense industries, but those investments have not yet turned into brigades and equipment that they can put on the front line,” said Stuart Dowell, TVP World’s Political Editor. “On the constraint side, he has a stalemate on the front line in Ukraine. He needs to do something to change that.”

“Some analysts are suggesting a ‘throwing the kitchen sink’ strategy – that he’s going to throw everything at Ukraine,” Dowell said, saying that Russia is likely to build up its stocks of ballistic missiles to yet again attempt to destroy Ukraine’s critical infrastructure come winter. However, Putin still needs soldiers, regardless of whether he sends them to Ukraine or Europe – with 300,000 drafted being one number thrown around.

“This is a very tricky thing for Putin because he needs those soldiers. But he may be thinking about what the reaction would be in Russian society if those soldiers are taken, but then Russia goes into another long period of stalemate in the war,"" Dowell said. “So he may want to – he has to – use those soldiers in a quick and decisive way.”

“But still, there’s a population of, let’s say, professional middle-class Russians working in companies (...) and if they’re swept into conscription it could create a lot of dissent in Russian society,” Dowell said, adding that while Putin has methods to deal with a discontented public, he cannot keep the lid on it forever.

Join News In Depth’s host Ashim Kumar and his guest as they explore why some analysts believe the Kremlin may be considering a major new offensive against Ukraine, how mobilization and growing domestic pressures could shape Putin’s next moves, and whether the Baltic states could become the testing ground for Russia's efforts to probe NATO’s unity and resolve.

Chapters:
00:00 What did the CIA head discuss in Moscow – Iran or the Baltic states?
04:50 Expected Russian mobilization & hybrid threats to NATO
06:52 Russia’s strategic window of opportunity and domestic constraints
12:04 How “ironclad” is NATO’s Article 5 & possible alternative responses from members
15:57 U.S. commitment to European allies and its impact on deterrence

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