Russian military’s incompetence makes invasion of Armenia unlikely | Richard Giragosian

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country intends to formally apply for EU membership, prompting criticism from Moscow. Similar attempts to escape Russia’s orbit by Georgia ended in a Russian invasion, as did, more recently those made by Ukraine. Is Armenia next?

“Well, a military invasion by Russia seems unlikely, especially given the military incompetence of the Russian side, as demonstrated on the Ukrainian battlefield,” Richard Giragosian, Founding Director of the Regional Studies Center, told TVP World. He noted, however, that Armenia’s close economic ties with the Russian market give Moscow leverage that could keep “Armenia hostage within the Eurasian Economic Union.”

“This is also why connectivity, trade and transport, and energy links with Armenia in terms of reopening closed borders, establishing normalized relations with its neighbors is so crucial to countering that Russian pressure,” Giragosian added.

Join TVP World’s Maciej Mikos and his guest as they explore whether Armenia’s EU ambitions are a realistic long-term goal or a negotiating tactic aimed at Moscow, how Yerevan is diversifying its security and economic partnerships beyond Russia, and why the outcome of the war in Ukraine may determine whether Armenia’s current window of strategic opportunity remains open.

Chapters:
00:00 CIA Director’s Moscow visit & Armenia’s strategic concerns
01:44 Armenia’s proposed EU referendum & the long road toward membership
04:16 Economic reform & reducing dependence on Russia
07:01 Russian pressure and Armenia’s security posture
09:16 Alternative partnerships & Armenia’s Western orientation
11:06 Prospects for a regional domino effect

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