Aussie dollar could go as low as 65 US cents by end of 2027, says NAB FX strategist | The Business

The Australian dollar briefly snapped a four week losing streak against the greenback, sitting above 69 US cents, after a weaker than expected US jobs report dented US rate rise expectations. But NAB's currency analysts say that is a brief reprieve.

The bank has downgraded its currency forecast, with predictions the Australian dollar could go as low as 65 US cents, by the end of 2027 if the RBA starts cutting interest rates next year.

NAB's head of FX strategy, Ray Attrill says that's because of several factors which include the US dollar remaining very strong for some time, NAB's view that Australia will see no more rate hikes this year, and a risk the US may see an interest rate rise in the coming months.

"That does play to the Aussie dollar suffering from that shift in interest rate differentials," he says.

NAB's base case is that the Australian dollar will hit just above 70 US cents during the second half of this year. However, Mr Attrill says that does depend on the greenback not continuing to strengthen.

But, he says, if the RBA cuts interest rates three times next year, as NAB is forecasting, the Australian dollar is expected to go down to around 67 US cents, with a risk it could fall to as low as 65 US cents, by the end of 2027.
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