Putin fears NATO as Trump quietly undercuts Russia’s global clout | On the Record

Is Trump actually bad news for the Kremlin? Professor Hanna Notte thinks so.

The conventional wisdom holds that Donald Trump’s presidency is a gift to Vladimir Putin. Hanna Notte, one of Europe’s leading Russia experts, pushes back hard.

“There is a sense in Moscow that Trump is very flippant. From a Russian point of view, there has been a lot of unpredictability in U.S. conduct,” she tells TVP World in the latest episode of On the Record.

While the Kremlin initially saw opportunity in Trump’s verbal assaults on European allies, Notte argues that Moscow has grown wary — unsettled by the same erratic behaviour that alarms Western capitals. Far from celebrating, Russian elites are watching Washington with unease.

The conversation goes deeper still: Does Putin genuinely believe Russia can still win on the battlefield? Why is Moscow seeking to recapture Trump’s attention through escalation and increasingly aggressive rhetoric? And what do Sergei Lavrov’s recent warnings reveal about the Kremlin’s real state of mind?

As Russian missiles continue to rain down on Kyiv and the diplomatic stakes rise alongside the military ones, this episode cuts through the noise to examine what the Kremlin is actually thinking — and what it means for Ukraine, NATO, and the future of European security.

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction: Trump’s chaotic policy-making–A gift or curse for Putin?
03:00 Why Trumpism can hurt Russia?
05:22 Russia’s loss of status in parallel structures
07:41 Rebuffed Iran mediation and other examples of U.S. dismissive treatment of Russia
10:31 The weakening of NATO and uncertainty over Russia's next moves: Will Moscow test Europe?
17:14 U.S. “consolidation”: A window of opportunity for the West's adversaries?
20:17 War weariness in Russia
22:09 Could Russia escalate to regain Trump's attention?
24:14 Europe’s role if talks emerge

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