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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is warning that the current El Niño phenomenon could reach exceptional levels, potentially becoming one of the strongest in decades.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo says the weather pattern could affect economies and communities across multiple sectors.
Climate specialist Mark Howden explains how El Niño interacts with human-driven climate change and contributes to rising global temperatures and more intense weather extremes.
Southeast Asia, Australia and South America are among the regions facing increased risks of drought, flooding, disrupted agriculture and food insecurity.
The report examines what a stronger El Niño could mean for water resources, food production and communities around the world, as experts call for better preparation, water management and food distribution.
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<br>Per Climate Brink dashboard (at 1 Sep 2026) using the Copernicus ERA5 dataset, relative to the 1850-1900 reference baseline:
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<br>* Year-2026 is on track for +1.62 °C ±0.05 °C above preindustrial.
<br>* Latest day was at +1.73 °C (record warmest for calendar year).
<br>* Sep 2026 projection: +1.65 °C (+1.45 to +1.85)
<br>* 365-day running mean: +1.48 °C
<br>* ENSO state: El Niño: +2.68 °C
<br>* Year-2026 currently has a 76.6% chance of being the warmest year on the instrumental record (to date).<br><br>This is likely now the hottest period on Earth since about the last 120,000 years, when human civilisation and agriculture didn’t exist.<br><br>Humanity is on a collision course towards a +3 °C global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) anomaly, or more; a world beyond any past human experience. Large-scale depopulation would be likely.