Failing to decisively react to sabotage only fuels Russian aggression | Linas Kojala

The German government has officially attributed several recent acts of sabotage to Russia. The accusation itself is not surprising. What stands out is how clearly Berlin chose to make it.

“We see a determined step by German government to clearly attribute a very risky situation that could have taken lives,” Linas Kojala, CEO of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, told TVP World on the sidelines of the Impact Leading Minds conference in Warsaw. “Previously, we saw a lot of hesitation in many European countries saying that, ‘Well, it's hard to attribute any hybrid action to any particular actor.’”

“Now, I think it's obvious that Russia is still moving up the escalator ladder, and unless we stop it, things could get even worse,” he said. “We will face even harsher actions from Russia that could lead to lives being lost or infrastructure being damaged.”

“So I think we see that what provokes Russia is weakness,” Kojala added.

“Whenever Russia sees that, we are unwilling to take a response, if we are hesitant to make it clear that Russia is an aggressive actor, (...) we are giving more fuel to the fire, and Russia escalates. We saw that previous actions taken by Europe were not enough to stop Russia from doing it,” he said. “So we have to change the behavior from being reactive to more proactive.”

Russia’s posture toward the Baltic states has fueled concerns they could be the first target of future aggression against NATO. Kojala rejects that framing.

“It’s either Russia threatening or potentially even attacking NATO or not attacking NATO,” he said. “We should not be separating different geographies of NATO, because I think that weakens the overall understanding of how NATO functions,” noting that after incidents in the Baltics and Poland, Germany has also found itself in Russian saboteurs’ crosshairs.

Join TVP World’s Klaudia Czerwińska and her guest as they explore whether NATO 3.0 can remain credible as Europe takes on greater responsibility for its own defense, how EU enlargement could bolster the continent’s security, and what Ukraine needs to withstand an increasingly difficult winter as Russian missile attacks intensify.

Chapters:
00:00 Russian hybrid attacks in Europe & how Europe should respond
03:53 NATO’s exposure to Russian pressure & the U.S.’s role in deterrence
06:05 NATO 3.0, Europe’s defense & strengthening the EU through enlargement
10:21 Ukraine’s air defense challenges, innovation & striking Russian missile launchers

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